Institution: It is expected that the average price decline of DRAM in the third quarter will converge to 0~5%

TrendForce Consulting, a research institution, stated that due to the gradual reduction of production by DRAM suppliers, the overall supply of DRAM chips has decreased quarterly; Combined with seasonal demand support to alleviate supplier inventory pressure, it is expected that the decline in DRAM average prices in the third quarter of 2023 will converge to 0-5%.

The organization stated that the current supplier inventory is still at a high level, and there is still great pressure for the average DRAM price to bottom out and recover this year. Although reducing production on the supply side helps to narrow the decline, the time to stop the decline and rebound may need to wait until 2024.

In terms of PC DRAM, the current decline in DDR4 is about 3-8%, while DDR5 has experienced a decrease of about 0-5% compared to the previous quarter due to the original factory's strict price control and the inability to fully meet buyer demand. It is expected that in the third quarter, the average price of PC DRAM will decrease by 0-5% month on month.

In terms of server DRAM, the buyer's inventory is still high, and the conversion of the new platform is not as expected. Although there has been an increase in the procurement of server DDR5 memory and HBM memory, it has not substantially helped the overall situation. It is expected that the performance of server memory in the third quarter will be the same as that of PC DRAM.

In terms of mobile device DRAM, due to weak demand for mobile phones in the first half of the year and limited traditional peak season driving effects, the prices of such chips have reached the bottom line of original factory prices after consecutive quarters of decline. It is expected that the average price of mobile DRAM in the third quarter will still decrease by 0-5% month on month, and some products will experience sporadic price increases.

In terms of consumer DRAM, at present, the transaction of such products is quiet. At the same time, SK Hynix has extended the supply of DDR3 and DDR4 4Gb from Wuxi Factory, and the capacity is gradually released. Huabang Power's production capacity will also gradually increase, so the market remains oversupplied.