The memory is out of stock and the price keeps rising
Jan 13,2022
Macronix (2337), the world's leading coded memory (NOR Flash), and Jinghao Ke, the largest niche memory designer in Taiwan, simultaneously sang the market conditions yesterday (12). Lu Zhiyuan, head of Macronix, predicted that the market for NOR chips is "without a dark cloud". Supply will continue to exceed demand this season, and prices will continue to rise. This is at least six consecutive quarters of price increases, which is the longest ever; Zhang Mingjian, general manager of Jinghao Technology, believes that the benefits The basic memory market will bottom out one quarter earlier this quarter, and the stock will be out of stock and prices will rise from the next quarter.NOR chips and niche memories are the two most important lifelines of Taiwan's memory industry at this stage, and major manufacturers such as Apple and Tesla must find Taiwan factories for supply. Macronix accounts for nearly 30% of the global NOR chip market, taking the top spot, followed by Winbond. Winbond's product line spans NOR and niche memory. With the positive development of the two major product markets, it will also benefit, symbolizing Taiwan's memory. The year of the golden tiger will be "the tiger and the tiger make the wind".
Previously, foreign investors generally expected that the memory market would not heat up significantly until the second quarter, and even NOR chips, whose prices had risen for more than a year, were also facing a pullback. According to industry sources, the Huahong factory, the second largest wafer foundry in mainland China, experienced a power outage, and the local NOR chip leader Zhaoyi's innovative output was hindered. In addition, the benefits of Samsung's transfer of production lines continued, so that the actual development of the memory market was far better than expected.
Lu Zhiyuan and Zhang Mingjian expressed their views on the market after attending the inauguration ceremony of the special class for memory majors in Chang Gung University School of Engineering yesterday. Lu Zhiyuan emphasized that the industry has not seen a dark cloud, and the NOR market has remained stable. The main reason is that the logic IC is in good condition. The mainland foundries do not want to OEM NOR chips, resulting in a relative reduction in the supply of related memory capacity in the mainland, which will help the price trend.
Lu Zhiyuan emphasized that high-density NOR chips for automotive, AI, 5G and other high-density NOR chips continue to be out of stock, and prices will continue to rise this season. Industry insiders pointed out that in the past, the quotations of NOR chips were "only falling but not rising", but after the second half of 2020, the market conditions were strong, and prices were rising all the way. As of last year, prices have risen for five consecutive quarters. Quarterly price hike, the longest rise in history.
Jinghao Ke originally expected that due to the correction of customer demand, the market situation would not be expected to recover until the second quarter, but Zhang Mingjian pointed out yesterday that it seems that the operation will bottom out ahead of schedule, and the customer correction period will end in the first quarter. Customers believe that the price of niche DRAM may be bullish in the second quarter, but it has not yet been officially finalized. From the perspective of the whole year, the third quarter will be the best season for Jinghao Ke in the traditional peak season of the electronics industry.
Zhang Mingjian analyzed that Samsung has issued a notice to transfer the existing niche memory production capacity to the production of CMOS image sensors, but the demand for niche memory such as DDR3 is still quite large. Mainland manufacturers have successively joined the niche market below DDR3, but the current yield is not high and the compatibility is not good, and it will take some time to catch up with Taiwanese manufacturers.
In terms of wafer cost, Zhang Mingjian explained that the company has signed contracts with suppliers. The cost reached a high point in the fourth quarter of last year, but decreased slightly in the first quarter of this year, and the inventory will also be reflected on a rolling basis; it is reported that two-thirds of Jinghaoke has The product adopts the contract price, and the remaining prices are adjusted monthly.
Lu Zhiyuan and Zhang Mingjian expressed their views on the market after attending the inauguration ceremony of the special class for memory majors in Chang Gung University School of Engineering yesterday. Lu Zhiyuan emphasized that the industry has not seen a dark cloud, and the NOR market has remained stable. The main reason is that the logic IC is in good condition. The mainland foundries do not want to OEM NOR chips, resulting in a relative reduction in the supply of related memory capacity in the mainland, which will help the price trend.
Lu Zhiyuan emphasized that high-density NOR chips for automotive, AI, 5G and other high-density NOR chips continue to be out of stock, and prices will continue to rise this season. Industry insiders pointed out that in the past, the quotations of NOR chips were "only falling but not rising", but after the second half of 2020, the market conditions were strong, and prices were rising all the way. As of last year, prices have risen for five consecutive quarters. Quarterly price hike, the longest rise in history.
Jinghao Ke originally expected that due to the correction of customer demand, the market situation would not be expected to recover until the second quarter, but Zhang Mingjian pointed out yesterday that it seems that the operation will bottom out ahead of schedule, and the customer correction period will end in the first quarter. Customers believe that the price of niche DRAM may be bullish in the second quarter, but it has not yet been officially finalized. From the perspective of the whole year, the third quarter will be the best season for Jinghao Ke in the traditional peak season of the electronics industry.
Zhang Mingjian analyzed that Samsung has issued a notice to transfer the existing niche memory production capacity to the production of CMOS image sensors, but the demand for niche memory such as DDR3 is still quite large. Mainland manufacturers have successively joined the niche market below DDR3, but the current yield is not high and the compatibility is not good, and it will take some time to catch up with Taiwanese manufacturers.
In terms of wafer cost, Zhang Mingjian explained that the company has signed contracts with suppliers. The cost reached a high point in the fourth quarter of last year, but decreased slightly in the first quarter of this year, and the inventory will also be reflected on a rolling basis; it is reported that two-thirds of Jinghaoke has The product adopts the contract price, and the remaining prices are adjusted monthly.