TrendForce: DRAM enters the price falling cycle next year,But 22h2 still has variables
Oct 12,2021
Turndforce Tuesday (12th) reported that it is expected that DRAM has fallen about 3-8% in the fourth quarter contract price, and due to an increase of 16.3%, the growth rate of 17.9% of the supply end will continue due to the growth rate of 17.9% of the supply end. By next year, the fell in the first half of the year may be expanded, and the variable is still saved in the second half.
At present, the current three major factory 2022 expansion plan is more conservative. Overall, it is estimated that the supply end of the DRAM industry will reach 17.9% in the 2022 DRAM industry.
Due to the demand side, due to the high number of students in 2021, the three major application markets of mobile phones, servers and pen electricity are difficult to grow in 2022. Overall, the demand bit element growth rate is estimated only 16.3%, lower than the supply.
The report pointed out that the annual DRAM output value is expected to exceed $ 90 billion in 2021, but as the price decline continues, 2022 ASP will or will be about 15-20% from this year, and the supply terminal expansion is quite, both offset, The total output value of DRAM next year or is flat this year.
However, the report also emphasized that the DRAM price changes in the second half of next year have still been uncertain. If they can stop falling, the annual output value is still expected to increase.
At present, the current three major factory 2022 expansion plan is more conservative. Overall, it is estimated that the supply end of the DRAM industry will reach 17.9% in the 2022 DRAM industry.
Due to the demand side, due to the high number of students in 2021, the three major application markets of mobile phones, servers and pen electricity are difficult to grow in 2022. Overall, the demand bit element growth rate is estimated only 16.3%, lower than the supply.
The report pointed out that the annual DRAM output value is expected to exceed $ 90 billion in 2021, but as the price decline continues, 2022 ASP will or will be about 15-20% from this year, and the supply terminal expansion is quite, both offset, The total output value of DRAM next year or is flat this year.
However, the report also emphasized that the DRAM price changes in the second half of next year have still been uncertain. If they can stop falling, the annual output value is still expected to increase.